A Reduced-Form Rapid Economic Consequence Estimating Model: Application to Property Damage from US Earthquakes

作者：Heatwole Nathaniel; Rose Adam^*

来源：International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2013, 4(1): 20-32.

DOI：10.1007/s13753-013-0004-z

• earthquakes
• natural hazard loss estimation
• property damage
• rapid estimation
• reduced-form modeling
• United States

Modeling the economic consequences of disasters has reached a high level of maturity and accuracy in recent years. Methods for providing reasonably accurate rapid estimates of economic losses, however, are still limited. This article presents the case for "reduced-form" models for rapid economic consequence estimation for disasters, and specifies and statistically estimates a regression equation for property damage from significant U.S. earthquakes. Explanatory variables are of two categories: (1) hazard-related variables pertaining to earthquake characteristics; and (2) exposure-related variables pertaining to socioeconomic conditions. Comparisons to other available earthquake damage estimates indicate that our Reduced-Form Model yields reasonably good results, including several statistically significant variables that are consistent with a priori hypotheses. The article concludes with a discussion of how the research can be enhanced through the collection of data on additional variables, and of the potential for the extension of the reduced-form modeling approach to other hazard types.

• 出版日期2013-3