A novel multivariate fuzzy time series based forecasting algorithm incorporating the effect of clustering on prediction

作者：Roy Arunava^*

来源：Soft Computing, 2016, 20(5): 1991-2019.

DOI：10.1007/s00500-015-1619-3

• Fuzzy time series
• Forecasting
• Clustering
• Fuzzy forecasting
• Local influence
• Global influence

Forecasting has often played predominant roles in daily life as necessary measures can be taken to bypass the undesired and detrimental future prompted by this fact, the issue of forecasting becomes one of the most important topics of research for the modern scientists and as a result several innovative forecasting techniques have been developed. Amongst various well-known forecasting techniques, fuzzy time series-based methods are successfully used, though they are suffering from some serious drawbacks, viz., fixed sized intervals, using some fixed membership values (0, 0.5, and 1) and moreover, the defuzzification process only deals with the factor that is to be predicted. Additionally, most of the existing and widely used fuzzy time series-based forecasting algorithms employ their own clustering techniques that may be data-dependent and in turn the predictive accuracy decrease. Prompted by the fact, the present author developed a novel multivariate fuzzy forecasting algorithm that is able to remove all the drawbacks as also can predict the future occurrences with better predictive accuracy. Moreover, the comparisons with the thirteen other existing frequently used forecasting algorithms (viz., conventional, fuzzy time series-based algorithms and ANN) were performed to demonstrate its better efficiency and predictive accuracy. Towards the end, the applicability and predictive accuracy of the developed algorithm has been demonstrated using three different data sets collected from three different domains, such as: oil agglomeration process (coal washing technique), frequently occurred web error prediction and the financial forecasting. The real dataset related to oil agglomeration was collected from CIMFER, Dhanbad, India, that regarding the frequently occurred web error codes of www.ismdhanbad.ac.in, the official website of ISM Dhanbad, was collected from the Indian School of Mines (ISM) Dhanbad, India server and the finance data set was collected from the Ministry of Statistical and Program Implementation (Govt. of India).

• 出版日期2016-5