MEGA((sic)): A New Paradigm in Risk Assessment Tools for Sexually Abusive Youth

作者：Miccio Fonseca L C^*

来源：Journal of Family Violence, 2013, 28(6): 623-634.

DOI：10.1007/s10896-013-9527-8

• Risk assessment
• Recidivism
• Juvenile sex offenders
• Adolescent sex offenders
• Female sex offenders

Prognostic utility of MEGA((sic)) was evaluated on a sample of 969 male and female youth without history of sexually-related probation or parole violation. Six month follow-up of 334 (34 %) found a new sexually-related probation or parole violation occurred in 28 (8.4 %). ROC findings showed Risk Scale significantly (p<.001) predictive of a new violation (AUC=.71 [95% CI=.62 to .80]). MEGA((sic)) Risk Scale scores added incremental prognostic utility over demographic variables (p<0.001) and resulted in a net reclassification improvement of 31.5%. Contravention for youth ages 4 to 12 was defined as new reports of sexually abusive behaviors in three or more different locations, or sexual behaviors that included oral, anal, vaginal, direct skin to skin contact, and/or penetration. Post-hoc analysis found 8 youth (21 %) experienced these outcomes. Risk Scale was significantly predictive (AUC=.77 [95 % C.I. = .60 to. 96; p=0.016]).

• 出版日期2013-8