A Practical Framework for the Construction of a Biotracing Model: Application to Salmonella in the Pork Slaughter Chain

作者：Smid J H^*; Swart A N; Havelaar A H; Pielaat A

来源：Risk Analysis, 2011, 31(9): 1434-1450.

DOI：10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01591.x

• Bayesian network
• biotracing
• pork
• risk assessment
• Salmonella

A novel purpose of the use of mathematical models in quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is to identify the sources of microbial contamination in a food chain (i.e., biotracing). In this article we propose a framework for the construction of a biotracing model, eventually to be used in industrial food production chains where discrete numbers of products are processed that may be contaminated by a multitude of sources. The framework consists of steps in which a Monte Carlo model, simulating sequential events in the chain following a modular process risk modeling (MPRM) approach, is converted to a Bayesian belief network (BBN). The resulting model provides a probabilistic quantification of concentrations of a pathogen throughout a production chain. A BBN allows for updating the parameters of the model based on observational data, and global parameter sensitivity analysis is readily performed in a BBN. Moreover, a BBN enables "backward reasoning" when downstream data are available and is therefore a natural framework for answering biotracing questions. The proposed framework is illustrated with a biotracing model of Salmonella in the pork slaughter chain, based on a recently published Monte Carlo simulation model. This model, implemented as a BBN, describes the dynamics of Salmonella in a Dutch slaughterhouse and enables finding the source of contamination of specific carcasses at the end of the chain.

• 出版日期2011-9