Disease dynamics in a dynamic social network

作者：Christensen Claire; Albert Istvan; Grenfell Bryan; Albert Reka^*

来源：Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications , 2010, 389(13): 2663-2674.

DOI：10.1016/j.physa.2010.02.034

• Social network
• Contact network
• Network dynamics
• Disease spreading
• Disease dynamics
• Measles

We develop a framework for simulating a realistic, evolving social network (a city) into which a disease is introduced. We compare our results to prevaccine era measles data for England and Wales, and find that they capture the quantitative and qualitative features of epidemics in populations spanning two orders of magnitude. Our results provide unique insight into how and why the social topology of the contact network influences the propagation of the disease through the population. We argue that network simulation is suitable for concurrently probing contact network dynamics and disease dynamics in ways that prior modeling approaches cannot and it can be extended to the study of less well-documented diseases.

• 出版日期2010-7-1