A parimutuel gambling perspective to compare probabilistic seismicity forecasts

作者：Zechar J Douglas^*; Zhuang Jiancang

来源：Geophysical Journal International, 2014, 199(1): 60-68.

DOI：10.1093/gji/ggu137

• Probabilistic forecasting
• Probability distributions
• Earthquake interaction
• forecasting and prediction
• Seismicity and tectonics
• Statistical seismology

Using analogies to gaming, we consider the problem of comparing multiple probabilistic seismicity forecasts. To measure relative model performance, we suggest a parimutuel gambling perspective which addresses shortcomings of other methods such as likelihood ratio, information gain and Molchan diagrams. We describe two variants of the parimutuel approach for a set of forecasts: head-to-head, in which forecasts are compared in pairs, and round table, in which all forecasts are compared simultaneously. For illustration, we compare the 5-yr forecasts of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models experiment for M4.95+ seismicity in California.

• 出版日期2014-10