科研之友
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摘要
This study evaluated the ensemble flood forecasting by using ensemble forecast outputs of the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model with a distributed hydrologic model. Ensemble NWP rainfall with a 2 km horizontal resolution and 30 hour forecast time was assessed whether it can produce suitable rainfall compared with the deterministic rainfall forecast during the typhoon TALAS, 2011. The ensemble flood forecast based on ensemble NWP rainfall was also assessed for hydrological applications. This study presents a methodology using the spatial movement of ensemble rainfall field in order to improve the accuracy of ensemble flood prediction considering the location correction of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF). This study was conducted using the largest flood events occurred by typhoon TALAS in 2011 with regard to the Futatsuno (356.1 km(2)) and Nanairo (182.1 km(2)) dam catchments in the Shingu river basin (2,360 km(2)) located in Kii Peninsula of Japan. As a result, the flood prediction using the spatial movement of ensemble rainfall field could improve the under-predicted interval of the flood prediction using the original ensemble rainfall. In addition, it was able to reproduce the peak discharge in the first and second prediction intervals for both catchments and to cover the observed value. The method we proposed in this study can be used in hydrological applications such as real-time flood prediction including flood prediction and warning systems, optimized discharge flow for dam operation.
- 出版日期2018-9
- 单位防灾科技学院
