An Adaptive Multiscale Ensemble Learning Paradigm for Nonstationary and Nonlinear Energy Price Time Series Forecasting

作者：Zhu, Bangzhu^*; Shi, Xuetao; Chevallier, Julien^*; Wang, Ping; Wei, Yi Ming

来源：Journal of Forecasting, 2016, 35(7): 633-651.

DOI：10.1002/for.2395

• nonstationary and nonlinear time series forecasting
• energy price prediction
• multiscale ensemble learning paradigm
• ensemble empirical mode decomposition
• least square support vector machines

For forecasting nonstationary and nonlinear energy prices time series, a novel adaptive multiscale ensemble learning paradigm incorporating ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and least square support vector machines (LSSVM) with kernel function prototype is developed. Firstly, the extrema symmetry expansion EEMD, which can effectively restrain the mode mixing and end effects, is used to decompose the energy price into simple modes. Secondly, by using the fine-to-coarse reconstruction algorithm, the high-frequency, low-frequency and trend components are identified. Furthermore, autoregressive integrated moving average is applicable to predicting the high-frequency components. LSSVM is suitable for forecasting the low-frequency and trend components. At the same time, a universal kernel function prototype is introduced for making up the drawbacks of single kernel function, which can adaptively select the optimal kernel function type and model parameters according to the specific data using the PSO algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of all the components are aggregated into the forecasting values of energy price time series. The empirical results show that, compared with the popular prediction methods, the proposed method can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of energy prices, with high accuracy both in the level and directional predictions.

• 出版日期2016-11
• 单位北京理工大学; 五邑大学; 暨南大学