A risk-based approach to flood management decisions in a nonstationary world

作者：Rosner Ana^*; Vogel Richard M; Kirshen Paul H

来源：Water Resources Research, 2014, 50(3): 1928-1942.

DOI：10.1002/2013WR014561

• regret
• nonstationarity
• trend detection
• hypothesis testing
• adaptation
• storm surge

Traditional approaches to flood management in a nonstationary world begin with a null hypothesis test of no trend and its likelihood, with little or no attention given to the likelihood that we might ignore a trend if it really existed. Concluding a trend exists when it does not, or rejecting a trend when it exists are known as type I and type II errors, respectively. Decision-makers are poorly served by statistical and/or decision methods that do not carefully consider both over- and under-preparation errors, respectively. Similarly, little attention is given to how to integrate uncertainty in our ability to detect trends into a flood management decision context. We show how trend hypothesis test results can be combined with an adaptation%26apos;s infrastructure costs and damages avoided to provide a rational decision approach in a nonstationary world. The criterion of expected regret is shown to be a useful metric that integrates the statistical, economic, and hydrological aspects of the flood management problem in a nonstationary world.

• 出版日期2014-3