A catastrophe model for water bloom prediction: A case study of China's Lake Chaohu

作者：Chen Yun feng; Yin Fu cai; Lu Gen fa

来源：Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 2007, 13(4): 914-921.

DOI：10.1080/10807030701456874

• water bloom prediction
• cusp model
• catastrophe theory
• eutrophication

Using a case study of Lake Chaohu, the fifth largest lake in China, we constructed a cusp model for water bloom prediction that used TP (total phosphorus), T (temperature), Chla (chlorophyll-a), and DO (dissolved oxygen). These four parameters were assumed to be the most important factors in eutrophication and water bloom of the lake. The model was found to be accurate, because its relative error was around 10%. What is more convincing, according to the catastrophe discriminant of the cusp model, it could be judged that a discontinuous jump of the aquatic ecosystem occurred in July 2004, in Lake Chaohu. This conclusion is consistent with the fact that water blooms arose in August 2004. The cusp model also showed satisfactory precision when applied to forecast the eutrophication trend and prediction of water bloom in Lake Chaohu in 2005. The case study found that water bloom brought on by eutrophication can be fit and predicted by a catastrophe model. We suggest that catastrophe models would be a constructive approach to forecast and judge the outbreak of water bloom in lakes. In addition, by constructing and studying such catastrophe models, lake managers would be able to simulate the effects of different protection and mitigation projects and enrich the scientific basis for the optimization of these projects as well.

• 出版日期2007-8
• 单位安徽省环境科学研究院; 南京大学