Development and Validation of a Scoring System for Predicting Periprocedural Complications During Percutaneous Coronary Interventions of Chronic Total Occlusions: The Prospective Global Registry for the Study of Chronic Total Occlusion Intervention (PROGRESS CTO) Complications Score

作者：Danek Barbara Anna; Karatasakis Aris; Karmpaliotis Dimitri; Alaswad Khaldoon; Yeh Robert W; Jaffer Farouc A; Patel Mitul P; Mahmud Ehtisham; Lombardi William L; Wyman Michael R; Grantham J Aaron; Doing Anthony; Kandzari David E; Lembo Nicholas J; Garcia Santiago; Toma Catalin; Moses Jeffrey W; Kirtane Ajay J; Parikh Manish A; Ali Ziad A; Karacsonyi Judit; Rangan Bavana V; Thompson Craig A; Banerjee Subhash; Brilakis Emmanouil S^*

来源：Journal of the American Heart Association, 2016, 5(10): e004272.

DOI：10.1161/JAHA.116.004272

• chronic total occlusion
• complication
• outcome
• percutaneous coronary intervention
• risk stratification

Background-High success rates are achievable for chronic total occlusion (CTO) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using the hybrid approach, but periprocedural complications remain of concern. Although scores estimating success and efficiency in CTO PCI have been developed, there is currently no available score for estimation of the risk for periprocedural complications. We sought to develop a scoring tool for prediction of periprocedural complications during CTO PCI.
Methods and Results-We analyzed data from 1569 CTO PC's in the Prospective Global Registry for the Study of Chronic Total Occlusion Intervention (PROGRESS CTO) using a derivation and validation sampling ratio of 2:1. Variables independently associated with periprocedural complications in multivariable analysis in the derivation set were assigned points based on their respective odds ratios. Forty-four (2.8%) patients experienced complications. Three factors were independent predictors of complications and were included in the score: patient age >65 years, +3 points (odds ratio, OR=4.85, Cl 1.82-1677); lesion length >= 23 mm, +2 points (OR=3.22, CI 1.08-13.89); and use of the retrograde approach +1 point (OR=2.41, CI 1.04-6.05). The resulting score showed good calibration and discriminatory capacity in the derivation (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi(2) 6.271, P=0.281, receiver-operating characteristic [ROC] area-0.758) and validation (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi(2) 4.551, P=0.473, ROC area=0.793) sets. Score values of 0 to 2, 3 to 4, and >= 5 were defined as low, intermediate, and high risk of complications (derivation cohort 0.4%, 1.8%, 6.5%, P<0.001; validation cohort 0.0%, 2.5%, 6.8%, P<0.001).
Conclusions-The PROGRESS CTO complication score is a useful tool for prediction of periprocedural complications in CTO PCI.

• 出版日期2016-10