Hydrological forecasting preferred and combination based on multi-attribute group decision

作者：Li Jian Xun^*; Shen Bing; Xie Jian Cang; Yang Ming Xiang

来源：Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2010, 30(12): 2315-2320.

• Attribute values
• Attribute weight
• Combination method
• Decision attribute
• Evaluation sequence
• Forecasting accuracy
• Forecasting interval
• Forecasting models
• Group decision
• Hydrological forecasting
• Ideal model
• Measured data
• Multi-attributes
• Relative errors

According to the problem of low accuracy in hydrological forecasting with the condition of parameters constrained, a hydrological forecasting preferred and combination method was put forward based on multi-attribute group decision. Firstly_the paper built four decision attributes forecasting correct rate, certainty coefficient, qualified interval, occurrence possibility, then gave the attribute weights in accordance with an ideal model, and assembled attribute values by using OWG and OWGA operator, finally constructed the forecasting interval which close to measured data based on evaluation sequence. The results show that: This method can effectively select forecasting values with smaller relative error from multiple forecasting models, and combine to a hydrological forecasting model with higher forecasting accuracy, improve the level of forecasting value.

• 出版日期2010