Adaptive real-time forecasting method of airdrome flight delay based on fuzzy immunization strategy

作者：Ding Jianli^*; Yang Haitong; Gu Bin

来源：Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics, 2011, 43(2): 257-261.

• Cut sets
• Flight delays
• Fuzzy immune strategy
• Real-time prediction
• Self-adaptive

To make an accurate and real-time prediction for flight delays, referring to the thought of fuzzy membership grade, a fuzzy immune prediction method is proposed. The concepts of "self", "nonself", "antibody", "antigen" and a membership degree function for antibody to the delayed flight set are defined. During the prediction process, through real-time monitoring changes of the environment and self-adaptive adjusting λ-cut sets, the paper chooses detectors according with the current confidence level, and overcome the limitations of the deterministic model. The simulation experiment on a domestic airport shows that the method is adaptive and can accurately predict delayed flight numbers of each period all day.

• 出版日期2011
• 单位南京航空航天大学