科研之友
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摘要
As a kind of relatively clean fossil energy, natural gas will face more uncertainties in the background of carbon neutrality. Reviewing the middle- and long-term development trend of natural gas consumption is the prerequisite to better understand the status of natural gas and ensure the sustainable development of natural gas industry. A multi-model comparison framework was established based on eight representative integrated assessment models (CE3METL, DNE21+, IPAC, AIM/CGE, IMAGE, REMIND, WITCH and POLES). The middle- and long-term evolution trend of China's total primary energy consumption and natural gas consumption in different scenarios of climate policy is discussed. Additionally, comparative analysis was performed on key time nodes, e.g., 2030, 2045, and 2060. The prediction results of most models indicated that China's total primary energy consumption in 2060 will be lower than the level in 2019 except for the scenario of national determined contribution (NDC). By 2060, the carbon neutrality goal year, the cross-model average level of natural gas consumption under the NDC, 2.0℃, and 1.5℃ scenarios will be 6943 × 108 m3, 4342 × 108 m3 and 2502 × 108 m3, respectively. Under the 1.5℃ scenario, the decrease of the total primary energy consumption shall begin in 2020, which means that faster technological progress and more effective combination of "boost" policies are needed. Under the temperature control goal of 2.0℃, natural gas consumption will account for about 13.6% of China's primary energy consumption in 2060, and this proportion will drop to 9% under the stricter 1.5℃ scenario.
- 出版日期2021
- 单位中国石油大学（华东）; 中国科学院大学
