Analysis of photovoltaic system performance time series: Seasonality and performance loss

作者：Phinikarides Alexander^*; Makrides George; Zinsser Bastian; Schubert Markus; Georghiou George E

来源：Renewable Energy, 2015, 77: 51-63.

DOI：10.1016/j.renene.2014.11.091

• Crystalline silicon
• Thin-film
• Degradation
• Performance loss
• Seasonal decomposition

In this work, the seasonality and performance loss rates of eleven grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) systems of different technologies were evaluated through seasonal adjustment. The classical seasonal decomposition (CSD) and X-12-ARIMA statistical techniques were applied on monthly DC performance ratio, R-p, time series, constructed from field measurements over the systems' first five years of operation. The results have shown that the R-p of crystalline silicon (c-Si) technologies was higher during winter. This was also the case for the copper indium gallium-diselenide (CIGS) and cadmium telluride (CdTe) technologies but with lower seasonal amplitude. The amorphous silicon (a-Si) technology exhibited a different seasonal profile, with high R-p during summer and autumn and low during winter. In addition, the trends extracted from the application of CSD and X-12-ARIMA on three-year, four-year and five-year R-p time series were used to estimate linear performance loss rates. A comparison between standard linear regression (LR), CSD and X-12-ARIMA has shown that CSD and X-12-ARIMA resulted in higher rates overall for c-Si, 1.07 and 0.93%/year respectively, but with significantly less uncertainty than LR. Lastly, it was shown that X-12-ARIMA provided statistical inference in the presence of outliers and produced model residuals that were uncorrelated, in contrast to CSD.

• 出版日期2015-5