A novel grey forecasting model and its optimization

作者：Cui Jie^*; Liu Si feng; Zeng Bo; Xie Nai ming

来源：Applied Mathematical Modelling, 2013, 37(6): 4399-4406.

DOI：10.1016/j.apm.2012.09.052

• Grey systems theory
• Grey forecasting model
• Prediction accuracy
• Least squares method

Although the grey forecasting model has been successfully employed in many fields and demonstrated promising results, its prediction results may be inaccurate sometimes. For the purposes of enhancing the predictive performance of grey forecasting model and enlarging its suitable ranges, this paper puts forward a novel grey forecasting model termed NGM model and its optimized model, develops a calculative formula for solving the parameters of the novel NGM model through the least squares method, and obtains the time response sequence of NGM model by using differential equation as a procedure for reasoning. It performs a numerical demonstration on the prediction accuracy of NGM model and its optimized models. As shown in the results, the proposed model and it optimized model can enhance the prediction accuracy. Numerical results illustrate that the proposed NGM model and its optimized model are effective. They are suitable for predicting the data sequence with the characteristics of non-homogeneous exponential law. This work makes important contribution to the enrichment of grey prediction theory.

• 出版日期2013-3-15
• 单位淮阴工学院; 南京航空航天大学