A Technology Foresight Model: Used for Foreseeing Impelling Technology in Life Science

作者：Chen Yunwei^*; Deng Yong; Chen Fang; Ding Chenjun; Zheng Ying; Fang Shu

来源：15th International Conference of the International-Society-for-Scientometrics-and-Informetrics (ISSI) on Scientometrics and Informetrics, 2015-06-29 to 2015-07-04.

This paper constructs an Impelling Technology Foresight Model (ITFM) for foreseeing impelling technology in the field of life science, which is a comprehensive model consisting of four class indicators: international scientific environment, evolving of papers and patents, collaboration features of patent assignees' collaboration networks, and impacts. A case study was carried out in the field of life science. Recombinant DNA (RbDNA) and Monoclonal Antibody (mAb) were selected as impelling technologies to carry out the case study. ELISA Diagnosis (ELISA) and Fermentation Technology (FT) were defined as non-impelling technologies to be control group. Results revealed that impelling technologies have higher evolving rates from the stage of growth to maturity. Significant policies or programs usually boost the rapid progress of impelling technologies. Impelling technologies have much higher impact than non-impelling ones. Collaboration behaviour is much more broad and general for impelling technologies. To our knowledge, this is the first study carried out to date to foreseeing impelling technologies at this way.

• 出版日期2015
• 单位中国科学院