Application of a Combined Model with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) in Forecasting Hepatitis Incidence in Heng County, China

作者：Wei, Wudi; Jiang, Junjun; Liang, Hao; Gao, Lian; Liang, Bingyu; Huang, Jiegang; Zang, Ning; Liao, Yanyan; Yu, Jun; Lai, Jingzhen; Qin, Fengxiang; Su, Jinming; Ye, Li^*; Chen, Hui

来源：PLos One, 2016, 11(6): e0156768.

DOI：10.1371/journal.pone.0156768

• HEMORRHAGIC-FEVER
• SPRING FESTIVAL
• RENAL SYNDROME
• VIRUS
• TRANSMISSION
• PREDICTION
• RISK

Background
Hepatitis is a serious public health problem with increasing cases and property damage in Heng County. It is necessary to develop a model to predict the hepatitis epidemic that could be useful for preventing this disease.
Methods
The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the generalized regression neural network (GRNN) model were used to fit the incidence data from the Heng County CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention) from January 2005 to December 2012. Then, the ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model was developed. The incidence data from January 2013 to December 2013 were used to validate the models. Several parameters, including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean square error (MSE), were used to compare the performance among the three models.
Results
The morbidity of hepatitis from Jan 2005 to Dec 2012 has seasonal variation and slightly rising trend. The ARIMA(0,1,2)(1,1,1)(12) model was the most appropriate one with the residual test showing a white noise sequence. The smoothing factor of the basic GRNN model and the combined model was 1.8 and 0.07, respectively. The four parameters of the hybrid model were lower than those of the two single models in the validation. The parameters values of the GRNN model were the lowest in the fitting of the three models.
Conclusions
The hybrid ARIMA-GRNN model showed better hepatitis incidence forecasting in Heng County than the single ARIMA model and the basic GRNN model. It is a potential decision-supportive tool for controlling hepatitis in Heng County.

• 出版日期2016-6-3
• 单位中国疾病预防控制中心; 广西大学; 广西医科大学