No matter how it is measured, income declines with global warming

作者：Ng Pin^*; Zhao Xiaobing

来源：Ecological Economics, 2011, 70(5): 963-970.

DOI：10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.12.012

• Temperature
• Income
• Global warming
• Quantile regression

The contemporaneous relationship between temperature and income is important because it enables economists to estimate the economic impact of global warming without assuming a structural model. Until recently, empirical evidence generally suggests that there is a negative relationship between temperature and income, and, therefore, global warming has an adverse impact on economic activity. However, Nordhaus (2006) argues that the temperature-income relationship depends on how income is measured. We show in this paper that the results of Nordhaus (2006) may be due to an omitted-variable problem. Based on a well-motivated temperature-income model, we find that the relationship between temperature and income is not dependent on income measurement. Our regression results show that the adverse impact of an increase of 1 C in temperature can be as much as a 3% decrease in total income for the G-7 nations. Therefore, our results suggest an aggressive climate mitigation policy.

• 出版日期2011-3-15