Non-random patterns in viral diversity

作者：Anthony Simon J^*; Islam Ariful; Johnson Christine; Navarrete Macias Isamara; Liang Eliza; Jain Komal; Hitchens Peta L; Che Xiaoyu; Soloyvov Alexander; Hicks Allison L; Ojeda Flores Rafael; Zambrana Torrelio Carlos; Ulrich Werner; Rostal Melinda K; Petrosov Alexandra; Garcia Joel; Haider Najmul; Wolfe Nathan; Goldstein Tracey; Morse Stephen S; Rahman Mahmudur; Epstein Jonathan H; Mazet Jonna K; Daszak Peter; Lipkin W Ian

来源：Nature Communications, 2015, 6(1): 8147.

DOI：10.1038/ncomms9147

It is currently unclear whether changes in viral communities will ever be predictable. Here we investigate whether viral communities in wildlife are inherently structured (inferring predictability) by looking at whether communities are assembled through deterministic (often predictable) or stochastic (not predictable) processes. We sample macaque faeces across nine sites in Bangladesh and use consensus PCR and sequencing to discover 184 viruses from 14 viral families. We then use network modelling and statistical null-hypothesis testing to show the presence of non-random deterministic patterns at different scales, between sites and within individuals. We show that the effects of determinism are not absolute however, as stochastic patterns are also observed. In showing that determinism is an important process in viral community assembly we conclude that it should be possible to forecast changes to some portion of a viral community, however there will always be some portion for which prediction will be unlikely.

• 出版日期2015-9