An assessment of present and future climate in the Mackenzie Delta and the near-shore Beaufort Sea region of Canada

作者：Bonsal Barrie R^*; Kochtubajda Bohdan

来源：International Journal of Climatology, 2009, 29(12): 1780-1795.

DOI：10.1002/joc.1812

• climate change
• Arctic, Beaufort Sea, Mackenzre Delta, global climate model
• temperature, precipitation, climatic extremes
• gridded data

Climate change is projected to significantly after physical. biological, and socio-economic systems, particularly in high latitudes. The Mackenzie Delta and near-shore Beaufort Sea region of Canada IS One Such area that has already experienced considerable charges in climate and associated impacts It has also been identified as highly sensitive due to recent oil and gas exploration and extraction. All Global Climate Models (GCMs) are projecting further changes to the Arctic climate, however, regional-scale variations are not well documented. Using seven international GCMs, this study quantities 18 future (2010-2039) temperatures and precipitation projections over the Beaufort region on annual and seasonal scales Several observed gridded temperature and precipitation datasets are also compared. Observed climate comparisons reveal substantial variability, especially for precipitation. All future projections demonstrate temperature and for the most part. precipitation increase,;. however. there I,, a considerable range on both temporal and spatial scales For temperature. autumn has the greatest change (+1.4 to +3.3 degrees C.), followed by winter (+1.2 to +2.6 degrees C). spring (+0.8 to -2.4 degrees C). and summer (+0.2 to + 1.6 degrees C) Spatially. the ocean warms more than the land during the cold season, and the eastern Beaufort. is warmer than the western region. Future precipitation shows annual increases averaging between 4.8 and 10.7%. Unlike temperature, seasonal precipitation changes do not vary greatly although slight decreases are projected in some scenarios. Recent (1991-2005) temperature changes at. Inuvik. Northwest Territories, indicate that Beaufort-region warming is occurring faster than projected by the maority of GCMs However. precipitation has not experienced these rapid chan.ges. In ternis of extrernes, cliniate-chanve projections revealed I substantial shift C in the temperature distribution toward fewer very cold months and several more warm months Extremely high monthly precipitation amounts are also projected to increase This stud can b

• 出版日期2009-10