Application of decision-making to a solar flare forecast in the cost-loss ratio situation

作者：Park Jongyeob; Moon Yong Jae^*; Choi Seonghwan; Baek Ji Hye; Cho Kyung Suk; Lee Kangjin

来源：Space Weather-The International Journal of Research and Applications, 2017, 15(5): 704-712.

DOI：10.1002/2016SW001532

• decision making
• cost-loss situation
• solar flare forecast
• value score
• forecast evaluation

The conventional skill scores for evaluating flare forecast models do not take into account the effect of various cost-loss ratios. For the first time, we have applied a decision-making based on skill scores to a flare forecast model in cost-loss ratio situations. For this study, we consider a flare forecast model which provides daily solar flare probabilities from 2011 to 2014. The skill scores are computed through contingency tables as a function of probability threshold (P-th) for the decision-making. A value score (VS) is calculated as a function of cost-loss ratio (C/L) and P-th,P- which are linearly correlated with each other. The maximum values of VS are 0.57, 0.37, and 0.61 for C-, M-, and X-class flare, respectively. We expect that this study would provide a guideline to determine C/L and P-th for the better decision-making in similar forecast models.

• 出版日期2017-5