Associations between short/medium-term variations in black smoke air pollution and mortality in the Glasgow conurbation, UK

作者：Beverland I J^*; Carder M; Cohen G R; Heal M R; Agius R M

来源：Environment International, 2014, 62: 126-132.

DOI：10.1016/j.envint.2013.01.002

• Time
• Series
• Black
• Smoke
• Lag
• Mortality

Objectives: To examine associations between short/medium-term variations in black smoke air pollution and mortality in the population of Glasgow and the adjacent towns of Renfrew and Paisley over a 25-year period at different time lags (0-30 days). %26lt;br%26gt;Methods: Generalised linear (Poisson) models were used to investigate the relationship between lagged black smoke concentrations and daily mortality, with allowance for confounding by cold temperature, between 1974 and 1998. %26lt;br%26gt;Results: When a range of lag periods were investigated significant associations were noted between temperature-adjusted black smoke exposure and all-cause mortality at lag periods of 13-18 and 19-24 days, and respiratory mortality at lag periods of 1-6, 7-12, and 13-18 days. Significant associations between cardiovascular mortality and temperature-adjusted black smoke were not observed. After adjusting for the effects of temperature a 10 mu g m(-3) increase in black smoke concentration on a given day was associated with a 0.9% [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.3-1.5%] increase in all cause mortality and a 3.1% [95% CI: 1.4-4.9%] increase in respiratory mortality over the ensuing 30-day period. In contrast for a 10 mu g m(-3) increase in black smoke concentration over 0-3 day lag period, the temperature adjusted exposure mortality associations were substantially lower (0.2% [95% CI: 0.0-0.4%] and 0.3% [95% CI: 0.2-0.8%] increases for all-cause and respiratory mortality respectively). %26lt;br%26gt;Conclusions: This study has provided evidence of association between black smoke exposure and mortality at longer lag periods than have been investigated in the majority of time series analyses.

• 出版日期2014-1