A low free-parameter stochastic model of daily Forbush decrease indices

作者：Patra Sankar Narayan^*; Bhattacharya Gautam; Panja Subhash Chandra; Ghosh Koushik

来源：Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2014, 107: 30-35.

DOI：10.1016/j.jastp.2013.09.008

• Forbush decrease
• Smoothing
• Autoregressive process
• Chaos

Forbush decrease is a rapid decrease in the observed galactic cosmic ray intensity pattern occurring after a coronal mass ejection. In the present paper we have analyzed the daily Forbush decrease indices from January, 1967 to December, 2003 generated in IZMIRAN, Russia. First the entire indices have been smoothened and next we have made an attempt to fit a suitable stochastic model for the present time series by means of a necessary number of process parameters. The study reveals that the present time series is governed by a stationary autoregressive process of order 2 with a trace of white noise. Under the consideration of the present model we have shown that chaos is not expected in the present time series which opens up the possibility of validation of its forecasting (both short-term and long-term) as well as its multi-periodic behavior.

• 出版日期2014-1