Alcohol consumption and mortality: a dose-response analysis in terms of time

作者：Bellavia Andrea^*; Bottai Matteo; Wolk Alicja; Orsini Nicola

来源：Annals of Epidemiology, 2014, 24(4): 291-296.

DOI：10.1016/j.annepidem.2013.12.012

• Alcohol
• Mortality
• Survival
• Percentile
• Laplace
• Dose-response

Purpose: Low-to-moderate alcohol consumption is associated with decreased mortality. However, many aspects of this association are still debated. Our aim was to complement available information by conducting a dose-response analysis of the association between alcohol consumption and survival time.
Methods: In a Swedish population-based cohort of 67,706 middle-aged and elderly men and women, frequency and amount of drinking were assessed through a self-administrated questionnaire. During 15 years of follow-up, 13,323 participants died. Differences in survival (10th percentile differences, PDs) according to levels of alcohol consumption were estimated using Laplace regression.
Results: We found evidence of nonlinearity between alcohol consumption and survival. Among women, we observed a rapid increase in survival up to 6 g/d of alcohol consumption (0.5 drinks/d) where survival was 17 months longer (PD = 17 months, 95% confidence interval, 10 to 24). After this peak, higher alcohol consumption was progressively associated with shorter survival. Among men, survival improved up to 15 g/d (1.5 drinks/d) where we observed a PD of 15 months (95% confidence interval, 8 to 22).
Conclusions: Low alcohol consumption was associated with improved survival up to 1.5 years for women with an average consumption of 0.5 drinks per day and to 13 years for men with an average consumption of 1.5 drinks per day.

• 出版日期2014-4