科研之友
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摘要
Exposure to surface ozone (O-3), which is influenced by emissions of precursor chemical species, meteorology and population distribution, is associated with excess mortality and respiratory morbidity. In this study, the EMEP-WRF atmospheric chemistry transport model was used to simulate surface O-3 concentrations at 5 km horizontal resolution over the British Isles for a baseline year of 2003, for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios for 2030, and for a +5 degrees C increase in air temperature on the 2003 baseline. Deaths brought forward and hospitalisation burdens for 12 UK regions were calculated from population-weighted daily maximum 8-hour O-3. The magnitude of changes in annual mean surface O-3 over the UK for +5 degrees C temperature (+1.0 to +1.5 ppbv, depending on region) was comparable to those due to inter-annual meteorological variability (-1.5 to +1.5 ppbv) but considerably less than changes due to precursor emissions changes by 2030 (-3.0 to +3.5 ppbv, depending on scenario and region). Including population changes in 2030, both the 'current legislation' and 'maximum feasible reduction' scenarios yield greater O-3-attributable health burdens than the 'high' emission scenario: +28%, +22%, and +16%, respectively, above 2003 baseline deaths brought forward (11,500) and respiratory hospital admissions (30,700), using O-3 exposure over the full year and no threshold for health effects. The health burdens are greatest under the 'current legislation' scenario because O-3 concentrations increase as a result of both increases in background O-3 concentration and decreases in UK NO emissions. For the +5 degrees C scenario, and no threshold (and not including population increases), total UK health burden increases by 500 premature deaths (4%) relative to the 2003 baseline. If a 35 ppbv threshold for O-3 effects is assumed, health burdens are more sensitive to the current legislation and +5 degrees C scenarios, although total health burdens are roughly an order of magnitude lower. In all scenarios, the assumption of a threshold increases the proportion of health burden in the south and east of the UK compared with the no threshold assumption. The study highlights that the total, and geographically-apportioned, O-3-attributable health burdens in the UK are highly sensitive to the future trends of hemispheric, regional and local emissions of O-3 precursors, and to the assumption of a threshold for O-3 effect.
- 出版日期2013-11
