Advancement in living probabilistic safety assessment to increase safety of nuclear power plants

作者：Zubair Muhammad^*; Heo Gyunyoung

来源：Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers - Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability , 2013, 227(5): 534-539.

DOI：10.1177/1748006X13485192

• Energy
• safety of nuclear power plants
• living probabilistic safety assessment
• risk level
• operational failure rate
• demand failure probability

Among the energy resources, the energy obtained from nuclear power plants is very important for the prosperity of any country. Living probabilistic safety assessment is a growing field that provides a high level of safety for nuclear power plants. Living probabilistic safety assessment consists of different techniques, among them this article presents a method to update reliability data. This method is based on Binomial likelihood function and its conjugate beta distribution for demand failure probability, and Poisson likelihood function and its conjugate gamma distribution for operational failure rate. The method uses generic data for beta and gamma prior distribution, which is updated by using the reliability data update method. Reliability data update is a computer-based program used to update nuclear power plant data according to changing conditions. By updating the living probabilistic safety assessment it is possible to get an online risk monitor system that can be helpful in severe accident conditions, as in Fukushima accident, to make the man-machine system friendly.

• 出版日期2013-10