An Interval-Deviation Approach for hydrology and water quality model evaluation within an uncertainty framework

作者：Chen, Lei; Shen, Zhenyao^*; Yang, Xiaohua; Liao, Qian; Yu, Shaw L.

来源：Journal of Hydrology, 2014, 509: 207-214.

DOI：10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.11.043

• Uncertainty
• Model evaluation
• Interval theory
• Hydrology
• Water quality
• Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Uncertainty assessment is becoming one of the main topics in hydrology and water resources. In this study, an Interval-Deviation Approach (IDA) was designed and incorporated into the process of model evaluation. The proposed IDA was validated in a real application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA), China. Compared with the traditional point-to-point comparison between measured and predicted data, the main superiority of the IDA is its innovative theory that models should be evaluated by each absolute distance between the paired uncertainty intervals or probability distribution for each measured and predicted data. In addition, the IDA can be used to quantify the possible range of model performance in a real application of the SWAT. This proposed IDA can be useful for error form indicators and models by providing a substitute method to facilitate enhanced evaluation of watershed models within an uncertainty framework.

• 出版日期2014-2-13
• 单位北京师范大学