Unemployment hysteresis in the East Asia-Pacific region: new evidence from MADF and SURADF tests

作者：Furuoka Fumitaka^*

来源：Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 2012, 26(2): 133-143.

DOI：10.1111/j.1467-8411.2012.01351.x

This study re-examined the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis in the context of twelve countries in the East Asia-Pacific region, namely Australia, China, Guam, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand. It employed the multivariate augmented DickeyFuller test and the seemingly unrelated regression augmented DickeyFuller test for this purpose. The empirical results confirmed the presence of unemployment hysteresis in these countries, except in South Korea and New Zealand. The findings indicated that the equilibrium rate of unemployment in the East Asia-Pacific region tended to be path dependent and that cyclical fluctuations in these countries' economies could have permanent effects on the level of unemployment. These results provide additional empirical proof of the validity of the hysteresis hypothesis.

• 出版日期2012-11