An evaluation of earthquake hazard parameters in the Iranian Plateau based on the Gumbel III distribution

作者：Mohammadi Hiwa^*; Bayrak Yusuf

来源：Journal of Seismology, 2016, 20(2): 615-628.

DOI：10.1007/s10950-015-9547-3

• Gumbel's third asymptotic distribution (GIII)
• Iranian Plateau
• Earthquake hazard parameter
• Annual mode
• 100-year mode

The Gumbel's third asymptotic distribution (GIII) of the extreme value method is employed to evaluate the earthquake hazard parameters in the Iranian Plateau. This research quantifies spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters like annual and 100-year mode beside their 90 % probability of not being exceeded (NBE) in the Iranian Plateau. Therefore, we used a homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1900-2013 with magnitude M (w) a parts per thousand yen 4.0, and the Iranian Plateau is separated into equal area mesh of 1A degrees late x 1A degrees long. The estimated result of annual mode with 90 % probability of NBE is expected to exceed the values of M (w) 6.0 in the Eastern part of Makran, most parts of Central and East Iran, Kopeh Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan, and SE Zagros. The 100-year mode with 90 % probability of NBE is expected to overpass the value of M (w) 7.0 in the Eastern part of Makran, Central and East Iran, Alborz, Kopeh Dagh, and Azerbaijan. The spatial distribution of 100-year mode with 90 % probability of NBE uncovers the high values of earthquake hazard parameters which are frequently connected with the main tectonic regimes of the studied area. It appears that there is a close communication among the seismicity and the tectonics of the region.

• 出版日期2016-4