An investigation on fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents on expressways in China: Using multinomial logistic regression model

作者：Peng, Yong; Peng, Shuangling; Wang, Xinghua^*; Tan, Shiyang

来源：Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers - Part H: Journal of Engineering in Medicine , 2018, 232(7): 643-654.

DOI：10.1177/0954411918780148

• Fatality of drivers
• fixed object
• expressway
• contributing factor
• collision avoidance action

This study aims to identify the effects of characteristics of vehicle, roadway, driver, and environment on fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents on expressways in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan district of Hunan province in China by developing multinomial logistic regression models. For this purpose, 121 vehicle-fixed object accidents from 2011-2017 are included in the modeling process. First, descriptive statistical analysis is made to understand the main characteristics of the vehicle-fixed object crashes. Then, 19 explanatory variables are selected, and correlation analysis of each two variables is conducted to choose the variables to be concluded. Finally, five multinomial logistic regression models including different independent variables are compared, and the model with best fitting and prediction capability is chosen as the final model. The results showed that the turning direction in avoiding fixed objects raised the possibility that drivers would die. About 64% of drivers died in the accident were found being ejected out of the car, of which 50% did not use a seatbelt before the fatal accidents. Drivers are likely to die when they encounter bad weather on the expressway. Drivers with less than 10 years of driving experience are more likely to die in these accidents. Fatigue or distracted driving is also a significant factor in fatality of drivers. Findings from this research provide an insight into reducing fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents.

• 出版日期2018-7
• 单位中南大学