A DESCRIPTIVE DECISION-MAKING MODEL UNDER UNCERTAINTY: COMBINATION OF DEMPSTER-SHAFER THEORY AND PROSPECT THEORY

作者：Nusrat Elhum^*; Yamada Koichi

来源：International Journal of Uncertainty Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems, 2013, 21(1): 79-102.

DOI：10.1142/S0218488513500050

• Decision-making
• uncertainty
• Dempster-Shafer theory
• prospect theory

In this paper, a descriptive decision-making model under uncertainty is proposed which incorporates two types of decision attitudes for uncertainty; one is an attitude about ignorance (optimism/pessimism) and the other one is about risk (risk-seeking and risk-aversion). At first, Evidential Decision Making Problem (EDMP) has been defined where Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) has been used to represent uncertainty. Then probability approximation approach of solving EDMP is shown. For deciding the decision weights in different attitudes of decision maker, Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) operator has been used. Later on, Prospect Theory has been applied to accomplish a descriptive decision-making model. To show the effectiveness of our approach, a real life decision problem of travelers' route choice from a set of alternatives has also been provided.

• 出版日期2013-2