The applicability of computer simulation using Monte Carlo techniques in windfarm profitability analysis

作者：Martinez Montes German; Prados Martin Enrique; Alegre Bayo Javier; Ordonez Garcia Javier

来源：RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS, 2011, 15(9): 4746-4755.

DOI：10.1016/j.rser.2011.07.078

• Renewable energy
• Wind power
• Project risk
• Simulation applications
• Net present value distributions
• Monte Carlo techniques

Obtaining external financing for windfarms may be hindered over the next few years by the high degree of uncertainty that is inherent in these types of project. Therefore, promoters must carefully plan and analyse their projects and attempt to optimise the profitability/risk factor of each investment. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate that Monte Carlo sampling represents an excellent approach to economic risk management in windfarm projects, as it provides a practical method of calculating the distribution of the NPV via the various random input variables. To this end, we defined a windfarm model, which has also allowed us to identify the basic parameters of current projects of this nature in Spain. We analysed the profitability of these projects using Monte Carlo techniques.

• 出版日期2011-12