科研之友
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摘要
The arrival of a new species of the fungus which causes Dutch elm disease into Great Britain in the 1960s caused widespread elm death and continues to be problematic following elm regeneration. Attempts at managing the disease have been largely unsuccessful. Forty years after the outbreak, however, researchers continue to be interested in both the underlying biology of such a severe and dramatic disease event and in the policy lessons that can be drawn from it. We develop a spatial model at a 1 km(2) resolution. Following parameterization to replay the historical epidemic, the model is used to explore previously proposed counterfactual management strategies. A new introduction date of late 1962 is estimated. We show that, even had there been high intervention at a national level in terms of disease management early in the epidemic, there would have been little long-term effect on elm numbers. In Brighton, a local pocket of elm which survived the peak of the initial epidemic has been successfully managed. However, Brighton and similar locations are subject to repeated waves of the disease at a 15- to 20-year intervals following regeneration and reinfection of the surrounding areas, during which much more intensive management is required.
- 出版日期2011-6
- 单位CSIRO
