Assessing real options in urban surface water flood risk management under climate change

作者：Liu, Haixing; Wang, Yuntao^*; Zhang, Chi; Chen, Albert S.; Fu, Guangtao

来源：Natural Hazards, 2018, 94(1): 1-18.

DOI：10.1007/s11069-018-3349-1

• Real options
• Flood risk
• Climate change
• Adaptation measures
• NPV
• SuDS

Developing an adaptation option is challenging for long-term engineering decisions due to uncertain future climatic conditions; this is especially true for urban flood risk management. This study develops a real options approach to assess adaptation options in urban surface water flood risk management under climate change. This approach is demonstrated using a case study of Waterloo in London, UK, in which three Sustainable Drainage System (SuDS) measures for surface water flood management, i.e., green roof, bio-retention and permeable pavement, are assessed. A trinomial tree model is used to represent the change in rainfall intensity over future horizons (2050s and 2080s) with the climate change data from UK Climate Projections 2009. A two-dimensional Cellular Automata-based model CADDIES is used to simulate surface water flooding. The results from the case study indicate that the real options approach is more cost-effective than the fixed adaptation approach. The benefit of real options adaptations is found to be higher with an increasing cost of SuDS measures compared to fixed adaptation. This study provides new evidence on the benefits of real options analysis in urban surface water flood risk management given the uncertainty associated with climate change.

• 出版日期2018-10
• 单位大连理工大学