A model for the coupled disease dynamics of HIV and HSV-2 with mixing among and between genders

作者：Alvey Christina^*; Feng Zhilan; Glasser John

来源：Mathematical Biosciences, 2015, 265: 82-100.

DOI：10.1016/j.mbs.2015.04.009

• HIV
• HSV-2
• Population dynamics
• Basic reproduction number
• Invasion reproduction number
• Sensitivity analysis

Evidence indicates that those with genital herpes (HSV-2) infections have greater risks of infection by HIV; and, once co-infected, are more likely to transmit HIV. To better understand the interactions between HIV and HSV-2, we construct a mathematical model that describes the joint dynamics. A new feature of this model is the inclusion of both heterosexual and homosexual interactions. We derive and interpret the basic and invasion reproduction numbers for HIV and HSV-2 using the approach of next-generation matrices. We then perform scenario analyses and conduct a sensitivity analysis to investigate the impact of the model parameters on the reproduction numbers and disease prevalences. We conclude that homosexual transmission drastically changes the disease prevalences; hence, it is important to account for this interaction as models that ignore homosexuality may greatly underestimate the disease burden.

• 出版日期2015-7