An Fr 13 risk analysis of failure in a global food process - illustration with milk processing

作者：Chandrakash Saravanan; Davey Kenneth^*; O'Neill Brian

来源：Asia-Pacific Journal of Chemical Engineering, 2015, 10(4): 526-541.

DOI：10.1002/apj.1887

• Friday 13th risk modeling
• Fr 13 modeling
• global model
• milk pasteurization
• unexpected process failure

A novel Friday 13th (Fr 13) risk analysis of the vulnerability to surprise (unexpected) failure of a global milk pasteurizing plant consisting of heating, holding and cooling unit operations is developed and illustrated. We define two or more interconnected unit operations as a global model. The aim was to gain new insight into the effects of accumulating random (stochastic) changes that could lead to overall failure in an otherwise well-operated and well-maintained pasteurizing plant. The methodology is a development of the work of Davey and co-workers (Food Control 29, 1 (2015) 248-253, CES 127 (2015) 133-142). Failure is defined in terms of criteria that must be met to ensure safe operation. Realistic data for large-scale pasteurization are used. Results reveal that the overall global model is vulnerable to failure in 12.5% of all cases over the long term. If each simulation can be considered a daily process, this translates to some 46 failures each year to meet the design pasteurization criteria. This new process insight cannot be obtained using traditional risk and hazard approaches. How this new Fr 13 methodology can be used to simulate design changes to the physical system to minimize vulnerability to failure is discussed. The finding should be of immediate interest to milk processors.

• 出版日期2015-8