科研之友
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摘要
China is one of the few countries with some of the highest particulate matter levels in the world. However, only a small number of particulate matter health studies have been conducted in China. The study objective was to examine the association of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 mu m (PM10) with daily mortality in 16 Chinese cities between 1996 and 2008. Two-stage Bayesian hierarchical models were applied to obtain city-specific and national average estimates. Poisson regression models incorporating natural spline smoothing functions were used to adjust for long-term and seasonal trends of mortality, as well as other time-varying covariates. The averaged daily concentrations of PM10 in the 16 Chinese cities ranged from 52 mu g/m(3) to 156 mu g/m(3). The 16-city combined analysis showed significant associations of PM10 with mortality: A 10-mu g/m(3) increase in 2-day moving-average PM10 was associated with a 0.35% (95% posterior interval (PI): 0.18, 0.52) increase of total mortality, 0.44% (95% PI: 0.23, 0.64) increase of cardiovascular mortality, and 0.56% (95% PI: 0.31, 0.81) increase of respiratory mortality. Females, older people, and residents with low educational attainment appeared to be more vulnerable to PM10 exposure. Conclusively, this largest epidemiologic study of particulate air pollution in China suggests that short-term exposure to PM10 is associated with increased mortality risk.
