Application of recursive batch MGM(1, N) model in prediction of planning craft motion attitude

作者：Shen, Ji Hong^*; Zhang, Chang Bin; Chai, Yan You; Qin, Tai Bai

来源：Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology, 2010, 42(7): 1163-1167.

• MGM(1 , n) model
• Motion attitudes
• Parameter matrices
• Prediction accuracy
• Prediction model
• Real time
• Recurrence formulas
• Recursive batch

To design an effective automatic control system of planning craft, a prediction model should be built to realize the real-time and precise prediction of its motion attitude. The applicability of using MGM(1, N) model to predict the planning motion attitude was analyzed. According to the characteristics of planning craft motion attitude data and real-time request of prediction, the recurrence formula was proposed to calculate MGM(1, N) model';s parameter matrix after a batch of data was acquired. Using this formula, the prediction accuracy can be greatly improved and the predicting time can be prolonged without the significant increase of computational complexity. The result of numerical simulation shows that it is feasible to use recursive batch MGM(1, N) model to predict the motion attitude of planning craft and the prediction accuracy is very high.

• 出版日期2010
• 单位哈尔滨工程大学