A new linguistic out-sample approach of fuzzy time series for daily forecasting of Malaysian electricity load demand

作者：Efendi Riswan; Ismail Zuhaimy; Deris Mustafa Mat^*

来源：Applied Soft Computing, 2015, 28: 422-430.

DOI：10.1016/j.asoc.2014.11.043

• Fuzzy time series
• Index number
• Weight
• Electricity load demand
• Linguistic time series
• Out sample forecast

The fuzzy logical relationships and the midpoints of interval have been used to determine the numerical in-out-samples forecast in the fuzzy time series modeling. However, the absolute percentage error is still yet significantly improved. This can be done where the linguistics time series values should be forecasted in the beginning before the numerical forecasted values obtained. This paper introduces the new approach in determining the linguistic out-sample forecast by using the index numbers of linguistics approach. Moreover, the weights of fuzzy logical relationships are also suggested to compensate the presence of bias in the forecasting. The daily load data from National Electricity Board (TNB) of Malaysia is used as an empirical study and the reliability of the proposed approach is compared with the approach proposed by Yu. The result indicates that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the proposed approach is smaller than that as proposed by Yu. By using this approach the linguistics time series forecasting and the numerical time series forecasting can be resolved.

• 出版日期2015-3