A continuous Bayesian network for earth dams' risk assessment: an application

作者：Delgado Hernandez David Joaquin^*; Morales Napoles Oswaldo; De Leon Escobedo David; Arteaga Arcos Juan Carlos

来源：Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 2014, 10(2): 225-238.

DOI：10.1080/15732479.2012.731416

• Bayesian analysis
• risk management
• dam safety
• embankment stability
• flood frequency
• expert systems

Dams are civil engineering structures to hinder water flows. Criteria such as purpose, size and construction material are useful to categorise them. The latter is used to classify earth dams', which tend to have higher risk levels than other types. The failure of a dam leads to significant economic loss and usually to catastrophic impacts. In an effort to comprehensively examine the variables that influence earth dam breaks and describe their interactions, a model has been developed in such a way that it allows to assess risks and to prioritise the allocation of resources for maintenance activities. The research was carried out by systematically reviewing the literature, which led to the choice of Bayesian Networks (BNs) as a tool for assessing risks. Using data from seven case studies in Mexico, a model was built, which helped to rank the dams under study, leading to results comparable with those reported in the literature. While the particular type of BN used and its quantification is presented more extensively in an accompanying paper, the model may be of interest for dam owners, managers, practitioners and academics on their efforts to manage earth dams' risks.

• 出版日期2014-2-1