A Skillful Prediction Model for Winter NAO Based on Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Eurasian Snow Cover

作者：Tian, Baoqiang^*; Fan, Ke

来源：Weather and Forecasting, 2015, 30(1): 197-205.

DOI：10.1175/WAF-D-14-00100.1

• Climate prediction
• Seasonal forecasting
• Short-range prediction
• Statistical forecasting

A new statistical forecast scheme, referred to as scheme 1, is developed using observed autumn Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and Eurasian snow cover in the preceding autumn to predict the upcoming winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) using the year-to-year increment prediction approach (i.e., DY approach). Two predictors for the year-to-year increment are identified that are available in the preceding autumn. Cross-validation tests for the period 1950-2011 and independent hindcasts for the period 1990-2011 are performed to validate the prediction ability of the proposed technique. The cross-validation test results for 1950-2011 reveal a high correlation coefficient of 0.52 (0.58) between the predicted and observed NAO indices (DY of the NAO). The model also successfully predicts the independent hindcasts for the period 1990-2011 with a correlation coefficient of 0.55 (0.74). In addition, scheme 0 (i.e., anomaly approach) is established using the SST and snow cover anomalies during the preceding autumn. Compared with scheme 0, this new prediction model has higher predictive skill in reproducing the interdecadal variability of NAO. Therefore, this study provides an effective climate prediction scheme for the interannual and interdecadal variability of NAO in boreal winter.

• 出版日期2015-2
• 单位中国科学院大气物理研究所; 南京信息工程大学