Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific

作者：Gong, Zhiqiang^*; Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar Ahmad; Qiao, Shaobo; Hu, Po; Feng, Guolin^*

来源：Atmospheric Research, 2017, 193: 184-191.

DOI：10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.04.016

• Summer precipitation
• Interaction
• East Asia-Pacific teleconnection
• Predictability
• BCC_CSM

This study examines the ability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to predict the meridional pattern of summer precipitation over East Asia-Northwest Pacific (EA-NWP) and its East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection. The differences of summer precipitation modes of the empirical orthogonal function and the bias of atmospheric circulations over EA-NWP are analyzed to determine the reason for the precipitation prediction errors. Results indicate that the BCC_CSM could not reproduce the positive-negative-positive meridional tripole pattern from south to north that differs markedly from that observed over the last 20 years. This failure can be attributed to the bias of the BCC_CSM hindcasts of the summer EAP teleconnection and the low predictability of 500 hPa at the mid-high latitude lobe of the EAP. Meanwhile, the BCC_CSM hindcasts' deficiencies of atmospheric responses to SST anomalies over the Indonesia maritime continent (IMC) resulted in opposite and geographically shifted geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa as well as wind and vorticity anomalies at 850 hPa, rendering the BCC_CSM unable to correctly reproduce the EAP teleconnection pattern. Understanding these two problems will help further improve BCC_CSM's summer precipitation forecasting ability over EA-NWP.

• 出版日期2017-9-1
• 单位兰州大学; 国家气候中心