Age Replacement Policy with a Safety Constraint via the Bayesian Method

作者：Sheu Shey Huei^*; Chang Chin Chih; Chiu Chaun Hung

来源：Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, 2011, 40(23): 4151-4164.

DOI：10.1080/03610926.2010.508144

• Age replacement
• Bayesian method
• Minimal repair
• Natural conjugate prior
• Safety constraint

Consider a system that is subject to shocks that arrive according to a non homogeneous Poisson process. As the shocks occur, the system has m + 1 failure modes including the following: (i) a non repairable failure (catastrophic) mode that calls for a replacement and (ii) m repairable failure (non catastrophic) modes that are rectified by minimal repairs. In this article, we propose an age-replacement model with minimal repair based on using the natural conjugate prior of Bayesian method. In addition, a safety constraint is considered to control the risk of occurring catastrophic failures in a specified time interval. The minimum-cost replacement policy is studied in terms of its existence and safety constraint. A numerical example is also presented to illustrate the proposed model.

• 出版日期2011