科研之友
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摘要
The plant flowering timing is an essential tool in agrometeorology, agriculture and climatology. The flowering shift evaluation enables us to reveal the changes of plant development because of climate change. In this research we used 30 years' phenological (hazel, silver birch and small-leaved lime tree) observation data, air temperature data and output data of two different climate models (HadCM3 and ECHAM5) based on three (A1B, A2, B1) emission scenarios. By using long-term data it was shown that air temperature has impact on the beginning of selected plants' flowering, especially on that of early flowering plants. Observations of the beginning of hazel and birch flowering are an essential tool not only for agriculture. These anemophilous plants produce a huge amount of pollen and observation of the beginning of flowering is important due to the fact that increasingly more people become sensitive to the airborne pollen. Phenological and modelling data indicated that in 21(st) century the biggest differences are predicted for hazel. It was clearly showed that the possibility to have earlier flowering of silver birch is in the second half of 21(st) century and that of small-leaved lime tree from the fourth decade.
- 出版日期2010
