科研之友
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摘要
A model was constructed to predict monthly birth probabilities using mammalian fertility data. We used a sample of 147 female capybaras (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) hunted on a farm on Marajo Island, Brazil. In the model each month was treated as a multinomial with six cells representing the six possible reproductive states (five months gestation). A hypothesis test was carried out to see whether a cosine curve would fit the birth probabilities. The results offer no support for a seasonal component (F(2,9) = 1.84, P = 0.21), whereas results from a direct census do (F(3,23) = 87.29, P < 0.01). Some hunting techniques were biased towards killing pregnant females (chi(2)(1) = 7.2, P < 0.01), thereby spreading reproduction throughout the year (F(2,9) = 1.84, P = 0.21). The model remained a powerful predictive tool to be used with mammalian fertility data as long as the data are not biased towards pregnant females.
- 出版日期2009-11
