Modeling travel time reliability of freeways using risk assessment techniques

作者：Tu, Huizhao; Li, Hao^*; van Lint, Hans; van Zuylen, Henk

来源：Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice , 2012, 46(10): 1528-1540.

DOI：10.1016/j.tra.2012.07.009

• Travel time reliability
• Instability
• Uncertainty
• Risk assessment
• Traffic breakdown

Travel time reliability is considered to be one of the key indicators for the performance of transport systems and is measured in various ways. This paper synthesizes both reliability concepts: traffic breakdown, the indicator of the instability of travel times, is treated as the risk, whereas travel time variability, the indicator of the uncertainty of travel times, is considered as the consequence of this risk. An analytical formula, using risk assessment technique, explicitly expresses the cost of travel time unreliability as the sum of the products of the consequences (i.e. variability) and the corresponding probabilities of breakdown. It provides a novel measure of travel time reliability and is applicable in network performance evaluations. An empirical example based on a large dataset of freeway traffic flow data from loop detectors shows that the developed travel time reliability measure is both intuitively logical and consistent.

• 出版日期2012-12
• 单位同济大学