Assessing species vulnerability to climate change

作者：Pacifici Michela^*; Foden Wendy B; Visconti Piero; Watson James F M; Butchart Stuart H M; Kovacs Kit M; Scheffers Brett R; Hole David G; Martin Tara G; Akcakaya H Resit; Corlett Richard T; Huntley Brian; Bickford David; Carr Jamie A; Hoffmann Ary A; Midgley Guy F; Pearce Kelly Paul; Pearson Richard G; Williams Stephen E; Willis Stephen G; Young Bruce; Rondinini Carlo

来源：Nature Climate Change, 2015, 5(3): 215-225.

DOI：10.1038/NCLIMATE2448

The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.

• 出版日期2015-3
• 单位中国科学院; 中国科学院西双版纳热带植物园