Age and sex structured model for assessing the demographic impact of mother-to-child transmission of HIV/AIDS

作者：Mukandavire Z^*; Garira W

来源：Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 2007, 69(6): 2061-2092.

DOI：10.1007/s11538-007-9204-2

• HIV
• AIDS model
• MTCT
• breastfeeding
• antiretroviral drugs
• basic reproductive number
• global stability
• persistence
• Lyapunov functional

Age and sex structured HIV/AIDS model with explicit incubation period is proposed as a system of delay differential equations. The model consists of two age groups that are children (0-14 years) and adults (15-49 years). Thus, the model considers both mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) and heterosexual transmission of HIV in a community. MTCT can occur prenatally, at labour and delivery or postnatally through breastfeeding. In the model, we consider the children age group as a one-sex formulation and divide the adult age group into a two-sex structure consisting of females and males. The important mathematical features of the model are analysed. The disease-free and endemic equilibria are found and their stabilities investigated. We use the Lyapunov functional approach to show the local stability of the endemic equilibrium. Qualitative analysis of the model including positivity and boundedness of solutions, and persistence are also presented. The basic reproductive number (R(0)) for the model shows that the adult population is responsible for the spread HIV/AIDS epidemic, thus up-to-date developed HIV/AIDS models to assess intervention strategies have focused much on heterosexual transmission by the adult population and the children population has received little attention. We numerically analyse the HIV/AIDS model to assess the community benefits of using antiretroviral drugs in reducing MTCT and the effects of breastfeeding in settings with high HIV/AIDS prevalence ratio using demographic and epidemiological parameters for Zimbabwe.

• 出版日期2007-8