摘要

Valuable wetland areas in the Kampinos National Park (KNP), Poland, are exposed to anthropogenic pressure mainly from the neighbouring Warsaw metropolitan area. Deterioration of hydrogenic soils and wetland vegetation has been observed for many years in the KNP. Currently land use change (urbanisation) and increasing groundwater intake are regarded as the main threats to the KNP wetland ecosystems. The objective of this study is developing an integrated GIS-based tool, that allows cause-effect analysis and prediction for the endangered wetland ecosystem in the KNP. The analyses were carried out for two wetland belts occupying the area of 177 km(2). The results indicate that soil and vegetation types vary with the groundwater depth and the level of degradation of habitats corresponds to lowering groundwater levels. The approach allows predicting change in the degree of degradation of soils and vegetation in terms of probabilities conditioned on groundwater depth. The results indicated that only one of five considered restoration scenarios, the one assuming exclusion of the whole drainage network in the study area, could significantly improve wetland state.

  • 出版日期2012-7